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Prediction for CME (2013-10-22T04:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2013-10-22T04:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/3423/-1
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2013-10-24T18:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2013 Oct 23 1329 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #
# (RWC Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 31023
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 23 Oct 2013, 1310UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 23 Oct 2013 until 25 Oct 2013)
SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Oct 2013 10CM FLUX: 146 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Oct 2013 10CM FLUX: 146 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Oct 2013 10CM FLUX: 141 / AP: 013
COMMENT: There were two M flares and seven C flares on the Sun during the past 24
hours. The brightest one was an M4.2 flare released by beta-gamma-delta
region NOAA AR 11875 with peak time at 21:20 UT on October 22, and caused a
Type II radio burst with estimated shock speed of 1955 km/s. All flares
except a low C flare (from NOAA AR 11877) were produced by AR 11875. More M
flares are likely from AR 11875 within the next 48 hours, with a slight
chance for an X flare. In the past 24 hours, solar wind speed further
increased from about 300 km/s to a maximum of about 400 km/s around 19h UT
on October 22. It has since fluctuated between 340 and 400 km/s. In the
same period, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field has varied between 4 and 9
nT, with current values around 5 nT. These variations are consistent with
the influence of a weak coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed is
expected to return to nominal values on October 24. LASCO C2 observed a CME
associated with a filament eruption at 4:36 UT on October 22, which has a
slight chance of producing a glancing blow in the second half of October
24. Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels (K Dourbes between 0 and 3;
NOAA Kp between 1 and 2) during the past 24 hours. Quiet conditions (K
Dourbes

Lead Time: 28.52 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2013-10-23T13:29Z

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